关于黄河流域水资源承载能力的动态预测和最佳调节方案的研究
1North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Jinshui Road 136, Zhengzhou, 450046, Henan, China. zhouke828282@163.com.
Scientific reports
|March 11, 2025
概括
准确预测水资源承载能力 (WRCC) 动态对于最佳分配至关重要. 这项研究为黄河流域开发了一个模型,揭示了过载条件,并提出了可持续发展的监管策略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 生态经济学生态经济学
背景情况:
- 区域水资源承载能力 (WRCC) 动态对于有效的水分配战略至关重要.
- 预测和管理WRCC对于平衡河流流域的经济,社会和环境需求至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 根据经济社会因素,水资源和生态环境的相互联系,开发WRCC的诊断指数系统.
- 使用集成方法构建WRCC的定量动态预测模型.
- 为黄河流域优化WRCC监管方案.
主要方法:
- 开发WRCC的诊断指数系统,包括经济社会,水资源和生态环境因素.
- 使用支持矢量机 (SVM),系统动力学 (SD) 和反向传播神经网络 (BP) 构建定量动态预测模型.
- 通过直角测试 (OT) 方法优化WRCC调节方案.
主要成果:
- 模拟预测在西线南北水转移项目 (WLSNWTP) 实施之前,黄河流域上游,中游和下游的WRCC过载或严重过载.
- 确定了六个关键的驱动指数,包括非传统的水利用和工业附加值,用于优化.
- 针对各种未来情景和时间点 (2030,2035,2050) 来得出最佳的WRCC监管方案.
结论:
- 这项研究为黄河流域WRCC的动态变化提供了宝贵的见解.
- 开发的模型和优化方案为高效利用水资源和生态社会发展提供了参考.
- 解决WRCC过载问题对于黄河流域的可持续未来至关重要.
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