使用贝叶斯多过程潜伏增长模型对艾滋病毒/艾滋病和结核病死亡率的联合轨迹进行集群和建模:从1990年到2021年的全球研究
Tofigh Mobaderi1,2, Anoshirvan Kazemnejad3, Masoud Salehi4,5
1Minimally Invasive Surgery Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
BMC infectious diseases
|March 11, 2025
概括
全球艾滋病毒/艾滋病和结核病 (结核病) 死亡率有所下降,但南非面临着相当大的负担. 针对性干预对于实现到2030年和2035年的可持续发展目标至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 人类免疫缺陷病毒/获得性免疫缺陷综合征 (HIV/AIDS) 和结核病 (TB) 的同时发生构成了全球健康的重大威胁.
- 了解这些双重流行病的不同死亡率模式对于有效的公共卫生战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2021年,在全球范围内对艾滋病毒/艾滋病和结核病 (TB) 死亡率的联合轨迹进行集群和建模.
- 为了确定不同国家的共同流行病死亡率的不同模式.
主要方法:
- 利用来自全球疾病负担数据库的204个国家的纵向数据 (1990-2021年).
- 雇佣的纵向k-means集群到具有类似艾滋病毒/艾滋病和结核病死亡趋势的国家.
- 应用贝叶斯的多过程非线性潜增长模型 (LGM) 来估计死亡率模式.
主要成果:
- 全球结核病 (TB) 死亡率从每10万人的30.61下降到13.34;艾滋病毒/艾滋病死亡率增加了2000,然后到2021年下降到每10万人的16.90.
- 贝叶斯的LGM揭示了每10万人的初始死亡率为11.168 (艾滋病毒/艾滋病) 和30.184 (结核病),随着时间的推移发生了非线性变化.
- 各国被分为三组,分组C显示了最高的艾滋病毒/艾滋病和结核病联合死亡率.
结论:
- 尽管全球死亡人数下降,但南非国家持续呈现高艾滋病毒/艾滋病和结核病死亡率,结核病死亡率降低至最低.
- 优先考虑高负担地区的干预措施对于实现艾滋病毒/艾滋病和结核病根除可持续发展目标至关重要.
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