研究由于主发动机故障导致船舶与液压枢纽相撞的概率
Chaofeng Wang1, Mingjun Liu2, Desheng Cao3
1School of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Inland Shipping Technology, Wuhan, China; State Key Laboratory of Maritime Technology and Safety, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|March 11, 2025
概括
在液压枢纽上防止船只碰撞至关重要. 战略性地放置防碰撞设备,可显著降低主发动机故障时的碰撞风险,提高航行安全.
科学领域:
- 海上安全的航行.
- 导航风险评估 导航风险评估
- 液压工程 液压工程 液压工程
背景情况:
- 水力枢纽对全球贸易至关重要,但面临着船舶运营带来的风险增加.
- 在枢纽水域失去船舶控制威胁到基础设施和运营稳定.
- 防止船碰撞对于保护航行至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种概率模型,用于计算水力枢纽中的船舶碰撞概率.
- 评估抗碰撞措施在降低风险方面的有效性.
- 为优化液压枢纽的安全基础设施提供见解.
主要方法:
- 使用蒙特卡洛算法和数学建模组 (MMG) 方法.
- 在各种场景下,在主发动机故障时模拟船舶运动轨迹.
- 将液压枢纽的独特特征纳入模型.
主要成果:
- 在Poyang湖水利中心的一项案例研究验证了该模型的性能.
- 战略性地在停泊码头部署防撞设施,大大降低了碰撞的可能性.
- 该模型有效量化了液压枢纽环境中的碰撞风险.
结论:
- 防碰撞设备有效地减少了在发动机故障时船舶与枢纽碰撞的风险.
- 调查结果为安全措施的最佳设计和安置提供了信息.
- 建议提高水力枢纽水域的安全性和运营效率.
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