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模拟中国东北部入侵性Asteraceae物种的当前和未来分布

Jie Yu¹, Lan Li², Hangnan Yu¹

¹College of Geography and Ocean Sciences, Yanbian University, Yanji, 133002, China.

Scientific reports

|March 12, 2025

概括

侵袭性Asteraceae植物威胁着中国东北部.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
侵入性物种生物学生物学
气候变化影响评估

背景情况:

阿斯特拉属植物,包括Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.,Ambrosia trifida L.和Erigeron canadensis L.,是中国东北部的第1类恶性入侵物种.
这些入侵物种破坏了区域生物多样性,生态系统稳定性和农业生产力.

研究的目的:

调查当前气候对三个主要的Asteraceae入侵物种分布的影响.
在各种气候变化情景下预测这些物种的未来分布变化.

主要方法:

利用36个预测变量的MaxEnt模型来分析当前和未来的气候影响.
根据SSP126,SSP245和SSP585情景,预计2041-2060年和2061-2080年的物种分布.

主要成果:

马克森特模型显示了高的预测准确性 (平均AUC为0.918).
目前的分布集中在中国东北部南部.
预计未来的气候变化将导致分布中心向西南转移,增加高度适合的地区.

结论:

预计,在未来的气候变化下,中国东北部的侵入性Asteraceae物种将在西南扩展其范围.
中国东北部西南部地区显示,这些物种的入侵趋势越来越大.
调查结果为制定针对入侵物种影响的管理和预防策略提供了关键数据.

关键词:

星座科 (Asteraceae) 是一个植物.分布中枢部位的移动发生在分布中枢部位上.未来的入侵趋势侵入性物种是一种入侵性物种.马克森特模型的模型.

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