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修改的有条件借款-按部分权力之前的高斯终点的动态和参数特定信息借款的高斯终点

Kai Wang¹, Han Cao^2,3, Chen Yao^1,2

¹Peking University Clinical Research Institute, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China.

Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift

|March 12, 2025

概括

贝叶斯动态借款方法通过自适应地使用外部控制来改善临床试验. 新的方法,如强大的MCBPP,提供更稳定的平均治疗效果 (ATE) 估计,特别是当外部数据变异不同时.

科学领域:

生物统计学生物统计学
临床试验方法论临床试验方法论
贝叶斯统计学贝叶斯统计学

背景情况:

借用外部控制是临床试验中的一个关键策略,以增加并发武器.
贝叶斯的动态借款方法根据先前数据冲突适应性地调整外部控制数据.
参数特定借款允许对人口平均值和差异进行差异性折扣.

研究的目的:

提出和评估新的贝叶斯借用方法,以改善对平均治疗效应 (ATE) 的后置推理.
为了解决在借用外部控制时对ATE估计变异异质的影响.
引入修改后的条件借款按部分预先权力 (MCBPP) 和其强大的变体 (rMCBPP).

主要方法:

对外部样本平均值和方差的参数特异性折扣的修改条件借款按部分预先功率 (MCBPP) 的开发.
引入强大的MCBPP (rMCBPP) 以完全扣除ATE估计的外部样本差异.
将MCBPP和rMCBPP与现有方法进行比较,例如在不同程度的先前数据冲突和异常异质性下修改的先前功率 (MPP).

主要成果:

当平均特异性先前数据冲突相似时,MCBPP提供比竞争对手更稳定的ATE后期估计.
rMCBPP提供了强大的ATE推断,以防止异常特定的先前数据冲突,完全扣除外部异常.
与MPP (假设未知变异) 相比,当外部和并发控制变异相似且种群变异均时,rMCBPP表现出优越偏差和I型错误控制.

结论:

拟议的MCBPP和rMCBPP方法提高了在使用外部控制的临床试验中ATE估计的稳定性和稳定性.
rMCBPP建议借用外部对照,在没有显著的人口变异异质的情况下,样本变异与并发对照相似.
假设未知变异的修改前功率 (MPP) 在存在大量样本变异差异时是首选的,这表明了严重的人口变异异质.

关键词:

贝叶斯的动态借贷方式借款-按部分借款之前的权力.外部控制器的外部控制借用参数特定的信息借款.之前的数据冲突.

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