评估全球登革热负担:三十年来发生率,死亡率和残疾趋势
Wei-Xian Zhang1, Tian-Yu Zhao2, Cun-Chen Wang3
1Department of Pathology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
|March 12, 2025
概括
自1990年以来,全球登革热病例和死亡人数翻了一番,南亚和东南亚的病例大幅增加. 海平面上升和气候变化与日益增长的登革热负担密切相关.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 环境健康 环境健康
背景情况:
- 登革热是世界上传播速度最快的媒介性疾病 (VBD),对全球健康构成重大挑战.
- 从1990年到2021年分析登革热的全球负担趋势,为疾病动态提供了关键的见解.
研究的目的:
- 利用2021年全球疾病,伤害和风险因素研究 (GBD 2021) 数据分析1990年至2021年的全球登革热负担趋势.
- 调查登革热负担,海平面上升和社会人口指数 (SDI) 之间的相关性.
主要方法:
- 登革热发病率,死亡率和残疾调整寿命年数 (DALYs) 的数据从GBD 2021中提取.
- 估计年百分比变化 (EAPC) 计算了年龄标准化发病率和死亡率,以及DALYs.
- 评估了与海平面上升和SDI的相关性.
主要成果:
- 在1990年至2021年期间,全球登革热发病率从2645万增加到5896万例.
- 死亡和DALY也大约翻了一番,南亚,东南亚和热带拉丁美洲受影响最大.
- 高SDI地区的登革热指标增长率增加,而5岁以下的儿童的DALY最高. 海平面上升与登革热负担有很强的相关性.
结论:
- 全球登革热负担显著增加,原因包括气候变化和载体传播.
- 量身定制的控制策略至关重要,特别是在南亚,东南亚和拉丁美洲等高发病率地区.
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