面对地球系统模型趋势与观测的对峙
Isla R Simpson1, Tiffany A Shaw2, Paulo Ceppi3
1National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
Science advances
|March 12, 2025
概括
气候模型越来越能够代表全球观察到的历史气候变化趋势. 本综述详细介绍了将模型预测与现实数据进行比较的方法,以了解气候变化影响.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 环境建模环境建模
背景情况:
- 人为气候变化信号在观测数据中越来越容易被检测出来.
- 气候或地球系统模型 (ESM) 长期以来一直在预测未来的气候场景.
- 气候变化的社会影响正在升级.
研究的目的:
- 审查气候模型在代表历史气候趋势方面的现有能力.
- 概述严格的方法来比较模拟和观察到的气候趋势.
- 探索用于识别和解决模型和观测之间的差异的先进技术.
主要方法:
- 分析历史气候数据和模型输出.
- 开发和应用可靠的趋势比较程序.
- 研究用于差异分析的尖端方法.
主要成果:
- 气候模型在捕捉观察到的历史气候趋势方面表现出越来越高的技能.
- 既定的程序有助于可靠地比较模拟和观察到的趋势.
- 正在出现先进的方法,以精确确定模型观察差异的来源.
结论:
- 气候科学界处于有利位置,可以用观测记录来对抗模拟模型的趋势.
- 超越量化,了解差异的驱动因素至关重要.
- 未来模型和观测之间的对抗对于推动气候科学和预测至关重要.
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