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气候变化的贡献鉴定和水利项目运行对河水位反应的贡献:汉江河的60年观察研究
Xizhi Nong1, Rujia Tang2, Lihua Chen2
1College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Guangxi University, Nanning, 530004, China; State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
Journal of environmental management
|March 12, 2025
概括
水利工程操作,而不是气候变化,主要是推动中下汉江河 (MLHR) 水平变化. 这项研究分析了长期数据,以了解这些水文反应,以便更好地管理水资源.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 地表水资源的利用需要了解水文对水利工程和气候变化的反应.
- 汉江河中流和下流对水资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析MLHR中的时空水位特征.
- 识别和量化水位变化的驱动因素,区分水利工程和气候变化影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自10个国家水文气象站的长期 (1964-2022) 每月水气候数据.
- 应用统计方法:曼-肯德尔 (M-K) 测试,标准正常同质性测试 (SNHT),沃斯利概率测试 (WLRT) 和实证正交函数 (EOF) 分析.
主要成果:
- 自20世纪60年代以来,大多数MLHR站都观察到水位的显著下降趋势,几乎所有站都有突变点.
- 气候因素 (降水,温度) 显示短期波动和与水位的低相关性.
- 水利工程操作导致中游水位上升,下游水位下降,这表明它们的主要影响.
结论:
- 在MLHR的水位变化主要是由水利工程操作驱动的,而不是气候因素.
- 提供科学证据和指导,以有效地管理河流水资源在联合影响下.
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