在使用多状态模型的韩国CKD患者中,临床事件的风险因素和过渡概率
Ji Hye Kim1, Jinheum Kim2, Jayoun Kim3
1Department of Internal Medicine, Chungbuk National University College of Medicine and Chungbuk National University Hospital, Cheongju, Republic of Korea.
Scientific reports
|March 13, 2025
概括
韩国慢性病患者面临更高的末期病 (ESKD) 和死亡风险. 该研究确定了不同的风险因素和过渡概率,强调ESKD是死亡率的重要预测因素.
科学领域:
- 腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學專業.
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 韩国慢性病 (CKD) 患者表现出独特的流行病学模式,心血管疾病 (CVD) 发病率较低,末期病 (ESKD) 率较高.
- 了解这一群体的临床转型和相关风险对于有效的患者管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析韩国CKD患者5个临床转变的5年和10年的累积危险估计,转变概率和风险因素.
- 为了比较与中级ESKD与心血管疾病事件相关的死亡风险.
主要方法:
- 利用多州模型分析来自韩国对慢性病患者结局的队列研究的数据.
- 包括1502名患有CKD1-4阶段的患者,进行多变量分析以确定过渡的风险因素:ESKD,CVD,CVD至死亡,ESKD至死亡和死亡.
主要成果:
- 与心血管疾病 (0.27) 相比,ESKD (0.35) 患者的10年累积死亡风险更高.
- 最高的10年过渡概率是从入学到ESKD (0.27),其次是入学到CVD (0.08).
- 对于五种转变中的每一种,都确定了不同的临床风险因素,强调了特定人群的疾病轨迹.
结论:
- 与韩国CKD患者心血管疾病事件相比,中间ESKD事件显著增加了死亡风险.
- 到ESKD的进展代表了最可能的10年过渡,其次是随后的死亡率.
- 量身定制的风险因素管理对于减轻韩国CKD患者队列的不良结果至关重要.
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