在2023-2024年海面温度上升的记录不太可能但并非意想不到
Jens Terhaar1,2, Friedrich A Burger3,4, Linus Vogt5
1Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. jens.terhaar@unibe.ch.
Nature
|March 13, 2025
概括
从2023年4月到2024年3月的全球海洋温度创纪录是非常罕见的,由于变暖趋势,每512年发生一次. 气候模型准确地模拟了这些极端的海面温度跳跃.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 海洋学
- 环境科学
背景情况:
- 从2023年4月开始,全球海洋表面温度达到一年多以来的最高水平.
- 这一事件超过了以前的记录0.25°C,促使研究其稀有性和模型代表性.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定最近创纪录的全球海面温度 (SST) 跳跃的特殊性.
- 评估气候模型在模拟这种极端SST事件方面的能力.
主要方法:
- 建立基于观察的合成时间序列来分析SST跳跃频率.
- 利用270个气候模型模拟来评估模拟极端SST事件的性能.
主要成果:
- 在目前的变暖趋势下,全球SST的升高超过0.25°C是每512年发生的一次.
- 如果没有全球变暖趋势,
- 气候模型成功模拟了这些创纪录的SST跳跃, 验证了它们的实用性.
结论:
- 在2023-2024年创纪录的SST跳跃是一个极端事件,如果没有人为气候变化,这是非常不可能的.
- 气候模型是了解极端海洋变暖事件的驱动因素和影响的可靠工具.
- 预计在事件发生后,海洋表面温度将恢复到长期的升温趋势.
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