扩展ProFamy队列组件方法,进行概率性家庭和生活安排预测
Yi Zeng1,2, Zhenglian Wang3, Qiushi Feng4
1National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing, China.
概括
本研究使用扩展的ProFamy方法引入了概率性家庭和生活安排预测 (PHPs). PHP为未来的家庭动态提供了关键的不确定性间隔,有助于健康老龄化和可持续发展研究.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 人口研究 人口研究
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
背景情况:
- 家庭和生活安排预测对于政策和规划至关重要.
- 现有的决定性方法缺乏不确定性量化.
- ProFamy软件为这些预测提供了一个强大的框架.
研究的目的:
- 审查家庭预测方法并引入扩展的ProFamy队列组件方法.
- 强调从确定性到概率的家庭预测的过渡.
- 证明概率家庭预测 (PHPs) 与概率人口预测 (PPPs) 的可行性和一致性.
主要方法:
- 使用扩展的队列组件ProFamy方法用于家庭和生活安排预测.
- 开发一个概率家庭和生活安排预测 (PHP) 的框架.
- 将PHP结果与联合国人口司的概率人口预测 (PPPs) 进行比较.
主要成果:
- ProFamy方法为PHPs提供了一个可行的框架.
- PHP的结果与PPP一致.
- 从2021年到2100年,PHP为预计的家庭和生活安排产生了关键的不确定性间隔.
结论:
- 概率性家庭和生活安排预测 (PHP) 对健康老龄化和可持续发展研究至关重要.
- 推使用ProFamy软件的R包DemoRates,用于人口统计分析和预测.
- 未来的研究将专注于将ProFamy方法扩展到具有不确定性量化的概率预测.
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