气候和疟疾:模拟18世纪和19世纪北欧国家的非线性动态
Tzu Tung Chen1, Yoonhee Kim2, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist3,4
1Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
Scandinavian journal of public health
|March 13, 2025
概括
北欧国家的历史疟疾爆发受到天气的显著影响. 夏季气温上升和极端的海平面增加了疟疾风险,突出了环境因素对温带地区疾病传播的影响.
科学领域:
- 历史流行病学 历史流行病学
- 环境科学环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 过去,Plasmodium vivax疟疾在欧洲,包括北欧国家,一直是流行病.
- 丹麦,芬兰和瑞典的疟疾发病率与温度变化相关.
- 其他环境因素对历史疟疾风险的影响尚未评估.
研究的目的:
- 调查环境变量与疟疾病例/死亡之间的非线性关联.
- 量化温度,降水和海平面变化对历史疟疾风险的影响.
主要方法:
- 采用了近似波松分布式滞后非线性模型.
- 分析了基于症状的疟疾数据 (病例和死亡).
- 进行灵敏度分析以确保模型的稳定性.
主要成果:
- 夏季平均气温上升2°C (16°C至18°C) 增加了丹麦的疟疾风险~25%,瑞典/芬兰的疟疾风险~67%,在1-2年间隔达到顶峰.
- 降水影响了瑞典和芬兰的疟疾风险,但丹麦没有.
- 极端的海平面和盐水入侵增加了沿海地区的疟疾风险.
结论:
- 历史上的天气模式和极端环境事件对温带地区的疟疾患病率产生了重大影响.
- 环境因素是历史上流行地区疟疾传播动态的关键决定因素.
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