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温度与枪支死亡率之间的关系的时间趋势
Hayon Michelle Choi1, Seulkee Heo2, Michelle L Bell3
1School of the Environment, Yale University, CT, USA; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, MA, USA.
Environmental research
|March 13, 2025
概括
极端的高温与阿拉巴马州和乔治亚州枪支死亡率的上升有关. 这一趋势不成比例地影响黑人/非洲裔美国人和女性,强调了有针对性的公共卫生干预措施的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 枪支暴力是美国死亡的重要原因之一.
- 高温越来越多地与枪支事件有关.
- 这些事件不成比例地影响了社会经济地位较低的人口.
研究的目的:
- 分析阿拉巴马州和乔治亚州 (2000-2020年) 高温造成的枪支死亡率趋势.
- 检查这些趋势的种族/种族和性别差异.
- 告知有针对性的公共卫生干预措施,解决健康不平等问题.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自阿拉巴马州和乔治亚州 (2000-2020年) 的个人枪支死亡率数据 (n=44,957).
- 使用分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 的时间分层案例交叉设计.
- 枪支死亡的估计年可归因分数 (AFs) 与温度高于90百分点相关,并进行了分层分析.
主要成果:
- 从2000年到2020年,枪支死亡率的热量归因分数 (AFs) 每年增加0.05%.
- 与男性 (0.02%) 相比,女性在与热有关的AF中表现出较高的年度百分比增加 (APC) (0.12%).
- 黑人/非洲裔美国人的APC比白人人口 (0.02%) 高 (0.10%).
结论:
- 极端的高温在阿拉巴马州和乔治亚州显著增加了枪支死亡率.
- 健康影响因性别和种族/族群而异,表明存在差异.
- 公共卫生倡议必须提高人们对热量对枪支死亡率的影响的认识,以适应气候变化.
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