全球胆囊癌的负担在2022年和预测到2042年
Hanfeng Guo1, Decai Zhang1, Zhaoqi Li1
1Department of Gastroenterology, The Third Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410013, Hunan Province, China; Hunan Key Laboratory of Nonresolving Inflammation and Cancer, Changsha 410013, Hunan Province, China.
概括
胆囊癌 (GBC) 的发病率和死亡率在全球范围内相当高,南美洲的发病率很高. 预计到2042年,癌症病例将增加65%,需要紧急的癌症控制策略.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 全球健康 全球健康
背景情况:
- 胆囊癌 (GBC) 是一个重大的全球健康挑战.
- 了解目前的负担和未来的趋势对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 提供2022年全球胆囊癌 (GBC) 负担的最新估计.
- 预测到2042年GBC发病率和死亡率的趋势.
主要方法:
- 使用了来自GLOBOCAN 2022数据库的数据.
- 根据性别,国家,地区和人类发展指数 (HDI) 分层计算的发病率和死亡率.
- 根据HDI的全球人口预测,预测未来的趋势.
主要成果:
- 在2022年,全球有122,469例新的GBC病例和89,045例死亡.
- 绝对数量最高的地区是中南亚和东亚 (印度,中国);年龄标准化率最高的地区是南美洲 (玻利维亚).
- 中等HDI国家的人口发达指数水平是低HDI国家的两倍以上;预计到2042年,发病率和死亡率将增加65%以上.
结论:
- 全球GBC的负担很大,在中南亚,东亚和南美洲有显著的度.
- 预计在未来20年内,GBC负担将大幅增加.
- 迫切需要有效的癌症控制策略,特别是在高GBC负担的地区.
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