通过对农业生产中的土地征税来避免全球森林砍伐:对全球市场的影响
Eric C Davis1, Maros Ivanic2, Brent Sohngen3
1United States Department of Agriculture-Economic Research Service, Kansas City, MO, 64105, USA. eric.davis3@usda.gov.
Carbon balance and management
|March 14, 2025
概括
保护森林免遭转化为农田可以通过土地使用税来实现,全球经济影响最小. 这一战略有助于增强陆地碳汇,同时稍微提高消费者食品价格.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 气候变化缓解减缓 气候变化缓解减缓
- 土地使用政策 土地使用政策
背景情况:
- 预计的人口和收入增长增加了将森林土地转化为农田的压力.
- 气候变化需要加强陆地碳汇,从而产生相互矛盾的土地使用需求.
- 通过灌木耕地逆转森林砍伐,带来了市场挑战,包括粮食价格上.
研究的目的:
- 评估保护林地免受农业转型带来的经济影响.
- 评估土地使用税在实现森林保护目标方面的有效性.
- 量化对全球消费者和食品价格的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用全球贸易分析项目 (GTAP) 模型.
- 采用了全球木材模型 (GTM).
- 模拟对农业生产征收土地使用税,到2033年保护1442万公的林地.
主要成果:
- 通过土地使用税来保护森林土地的结果是相对较小的负面市场影响.
- 避免森林砍伐导致农业产量减少,全球市场价格上.
- 到2033年,全球消费者福祉将受到估计的1197亿美元的影响.
结论:
- 土地使用税是一个可行的政策,用于保护森林和增强碳汇.
- 保护森林的经济成本是可以管理的,全球平均每人13.78美元.
- 通过有针对性的经济工具,可以实现平衡农业需求与减缓气候变化.
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