基于森林的随机预测浅坡的稳定性,考虑到不和土壤水分的时空变化
Yangyang Li1,2, Saranya Rangarajan3, Yusen Cheng4
1Suzhou Industrial Park Monash Research Institute of Science and Technology, Monash University, No. 1 Huayun Road, SIP Suzhou, Suzhou, 215000, PR China. yangyang.li@monash.edu.
Scientific reports
|March 14, 2025
概括
本研究提出了一个有效的框架,将机器学习和物理模型结合起来,用于预测极端降雨下的斜坡稳定性. 新方法提高了准确性,并显著提高了对滑坡风险评估的计算效率.
科学领域:
- 地质技术工程 地质技术工程
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化影响研究 影响研究
背景情况:
- 气候变化加剧的极端降雨事件增加了山体滑坡的发生.
- 准确的斜坡稳定性预测对于减轻地质危险至关重要.
- 现有的方法在区域评估的计算效率和可靠性方面经常面临挑战.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个高效可靠的框架,用于在极端降雨下预测区域斜坡的稳定性.
- 整合机器学习与物理模型,以提高计算性能.
- 评估土壤湿度变化对斜坡稳定性的影响.
主要方法:
- 在不同的降雨情景下,使用GEOtop模型模拟不和土壤中的体积含水量 (VWC).
- 使用Scoops3D模型进行安全因子 (FOS) 计算.
- 使用VWC数据训练随机森林 (RF) 模型,并将其应用于斜坡稳定性预测,将结果与Scoops3D进行比较.
主要成果:
- 拟议的框架在预测不同深度的坡度稳定性方面实现了与Scoops3D相比的准确性.
- 与传统的物理模型相比,观察到计算效率的显著提高.
- 在0.05米深的地表土壤湿度被确定为斜坡稳定的关键因素.
结论:
- 机器学习和物理模型的综合框架为区域坡度稳定性预测提供了一种高效可靠的方法.
- 这种方法支持使用遥感或现场测量的土壤湿度数据来动态预测坡度稳定性.
- 这些发现强调了在山体滑坡风险管理策略中考虑土壤湿度动态的重要性.
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