预测韩国2025年的癌症发病率和死亡率
Kyu-Won Jung1,2, Mee Joo Kang1,2, Eun Hye Park1,2
1Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea.
Cancer research and treatment
|March 14, 2025
概括
预计到2025年,韩国将出现超过30万个新的癌症病例和84,000例死亡. 甲状腺癌将是最常见的,而肺癌预计将导致死亡人数最多,反映出人口老龄化负担.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 癌症仍然是全球和韩国的重大公共卫生问题.
- 对癌症发病率和死亡率的准确预测对于医疗保健规划和资源分配至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测2025年韩国的癌症发病率和死亡率.
- 为了估计该国未来的癌症负担.
主要方法:
- 利用了国家癌症发病率 (1999-2022) 和死亡率 (1993-2023) 的数据.
- 使用线性回归用于特定年龄的年龄率和结点回归用于趋势分析.
- 通过将模型应用于预期的2025年龄特定人群,预计的2025年率.
主要成果:
- 预计2025年约有304,754例新的癌症病例和84,019例死亡.
- 预计甲状腺癌是最常见的,其次是结直肠,肺,乳腺,前列腺和胃癌.
- 预计肺癌将是癌症死亡的主要原因,其次是肝癌,结肠直肠癌,胰腺癌,胃癌和胆囊癌.
结论:
- 预计女性乳腺癌,前列腺癌和胰腺癌发病率的增加.
- 由于人口老龄化,预计老年人中的癌症负担将大幅增加.
- 这些预测凸显了针对癌症预防和控制战略的需要.
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