亲密伴侣谋杀预测模型的构建和评估
Wei-Ping Lü1, Xin-Biao Liao2, Li-Ju Ren3
1Xinxing Public Security Bureau, Xinxing 527400, Guangdong Province, China.
Fa yi xue za zhi
|March 14, 2025
概括
这项研究使用法医数据开发了亲密伴侣谋杀 (IPH) 的预测模型. 该模型表现出强大的准确性和稳定性,为IPH案件的犯罪分析提供了有价值的工具.
科学领域:
- 法医科学 法医科学 法医科学
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 亲密伴侣杀人 (IPH) 仍然是一个重大的公共安全问题.
- 了解导致IPH的因素对于制定有效的预防和干预策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定亲密伴侣谋杀 (IPH) 案件的独立影响因素.
- 构建一个强大的IPH预测模型.
- 在IPH调查中建立犯罪分析的科学基础.
主要方法:
- 分析了广东省476名被定罪杀人案件 (2014-2020年) 的数据集.
- 后勤回归被用来构建预测模型.
- 用ROC曲线分析,名图和交叉验证来评估模型性能,并对来自广东以外的病例进行外部验证.
主要成果:
- 七个关键变量被确定为IPH的独立预测因素.
- 开发的IPH预测模型表现出高预测能力,曲线下的面积 (AUC) 为0.939 (内部) 和0.922 (外部).
- 该模型表现出良好的准确性,灵敏度 (0.900内部,0.890外部) 和特异性 (0.865内部,0.886外部).
结论:
- 使用法医现场指标的IPH预测模型具有强大的预测能力.
- 该模型的可靠准确性和稳定性为犯罪分析提供了科学基础.
- 该工具可以帮助执法部门和研究人员识别和理解IPH动态.
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