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非线性经济:资源限制如何导致商业周期

Frank Schweitzer¹, Giona Casiraghi¹

¹Chair of Systems Design, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.

Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)

|March 14, 2025

概括

本研究介绍了一个包含资源限制的宏观经济模型,揭示了耗尽能源资源可能导致内生商业周期. 该模型展示了能源耗尽和更新动态如何影响经济稳定和产量水平.

科学领域:

经济学经济学经济学
宏观经济建模宏观经济建模
资源经济学资源经济学

背景情况:

传统的宏观经济模型往往忽视了资源枯竭对经济动态的影响.
了解能源,资本和生产之间的相互作用对于长期经济稳定至关重要.

研究的目的:

探索具有资源限制的宏观经济模型的非线性动态.
调查能源作为经济生产中耗尽投入的作用.
确定导致经济周期和稳定的条件.

主要方法:

发展一个整合资本和通用能源投入的宏观经济模型.
在不同的时间尺度和能量参数下分析模型的非线性动态.
检查稳定状态,持续振荡 (商业周期),以及稳定点和极限周期的共存.

主要成果:

该模型表现出高或低生产的稳定状态,以及商业周期的特征持续的振荡.
确定了稳定的固定点和极限周期的共存条件.
该模型为在Kaldor的商业周期模型中指定投资和储蓄函数提供了一个框架.

结论:

资源的枯竭,特别是能源,可能是宏观经济系统中商业周期的内生源.
该模型强调了能源动态和更新对经济稳定和周期性行为的关键影响.

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