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一个每年解决的5700年风暴档案揭示了加勒比海风频率的驱动因素
Dominik Schmitt1, Eberhard Gischler1, Martin Melles2
1Institut für Geowissenschaften, Goethe-Universität, Frankfurt 60438, Germany.
Science advances
|March 14, 2025
概括
来自大蓝洞的5700年沉积物核心记录揭示了加勒比地区热带气旋 (TC) 风暴的增加. 外推表明,由于工业时代的变暖,TC频率显著增加.
科学领域:
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 海洋地质学海洋地质学
- 热带气旋研究 热带气旋研究
背景情况:
- 热带气旋 (TC) 频率的准确预测受到过去自然变化的不完全理解的限制.
- 关于TC活动的现有数据涵盖了仪器记录 (73年),历史文件 (173年) 和古气象数据 (2000年).
研究的目的:
- 重建一个长期的,每年解决的热带气旋频率记录.
- 扩大对过去TC变量的理解,超越现有记录.
- 调查过去TC频率变化的驱动因素,并预测未来的趋势.
主要方法:
- 来自贝利兹大蓝洞30米沉积物核心的分析.
- 694个事件层的识别和约会表明了过去的热带气旋活动.
- 已识别的TC事件与古气候代理和轨道强迫的相关性.
主要成果:
- 建立了最长的连续,每年解决的TC频率记录,跨越过去的5700年.
- 确定了加勒比海西南部风暴增加的趋势,与热带融合区的轨道移动有关.
- 短时间的TC频率变化与Holocene气候间隔,太阳辐射,海面温度和气候模式相关.
结论:
- 过去的TC频率变化受到轨道周期,太阳活动和气候现象的影响.
- 一个21世纪的推断表明TC频率的前所未有的上升.
- 工业时代的变暖被确定为TC频率预计增加的主要驱动因素.
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