怀疑的证据,有价值的信息
1Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Evaluation review
|March 14, 2025
概括
即使是关于计划绩效的低质量证据也可以为决策提供信息. 当地政府在调整来自其他地方的计划时,必须仔细评估不确定性,以确保成功实施并满足他们自己的标准.
科学领域:
- 公共管理 公共管理
- 政策分析 政策分析
- 项目评估 项目评估
背景情况:
- 当地政府经常面临关于采用在其他地方展示的计划的决定.
- 由于各种不确定性,评估外部计划的绩效存在重大挑战.
- 关于计划成功的证据质量可能会有所不同,影响决策.
研究的目的:
- 探索低质量的证据在计划绩效中对决策的有用性.
- 识别和分析不确定性来源,从一个环境中推断项目成功到另一个环境.
- 为地方政府考虑采用计划提供一个框架.
主要方法:
- 在不确定性下决策的概念分析.
- 在程序推断中确定了五个关键的不确定性来源:机会,混变量,组件有效性,设计替代和平衡标准.
- 使用一个假设的地方政府 ("这里") 考虑"其他地方"的程序的案例说明.
主要成果:
- 低质量的证据,尽管有局限性,仍然可以成为决策的有价值的起点.
- 成功采用程序需要解决与绩效评估,混因素和上下文适应相关的特定不确定性.
- 当地政府必须进行他们自己的彻底分析和信息收集,即使在外部绩效数据呈现时.
结论:
- 决策过程可以通过系统地解决固有的不确定性来利用不完整的证据.
- 推断项目成功需要对外部绩效数据进行批判性评估,并清楚地了解当地需求和约束.
- 有效的计划采用取决于积极主动地收集信息和管理风险.
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