主观概率是由情绪调节的
Lara Abel1,2, Eric Schulz3, Jonathan D Nelson4
1School of Psychology, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK. la518@cam.ac.uk.
Scientific reports
|March 15, 2025
概括
情绪主导影响概率估计,使个人更保守. 这种影响延伸到风险评估,并可能统一以前关于情绪和认知的发现.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
- 情感科学是一种情感科学.
背景情况:
- 关于风险和概率的信息对于在不确定的环境中进行决策至关重要.
- 众所周知,情绪会影响预期或不预期事件的主观概率.
- 情绪对情感中性事件发生概率的影响不太清楚.
研究的目的:
- 调查情绪主导在塑造中性事件主观概率估计中的作用.
- 检查情绪主导是否影响现实风险评估中的概率估计.
- 探索情绪主导,概率估计和启发式使用之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 进行了一项相关性研究 (N = 162) 和一项实验研究 (N = 119).
- 评估了参与者的情绪主导地位和他们对各种事件的概率估计.
- 测量了使用代表性启发式作为概率的代理.
主要成果:
- 情绪主导度较高的个体表现出更保守的概率估计,避免极端值.
- 在现实的风险评估中也观察到这种保守的估计模式.
- 高情绪主导度与代表性启发式的使用增加相关.
结论:
- 情绪主导可能是一个统一的构造,解释了情绪对概率认知的影响.
- 研究结果表明,情感特征显著影响个人如何感知和估计概率,即使对于中性事件.
- 情绪主导影响抽象的概率判断和实际的风险评估.
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