使用机器学习和置信区间,对空间变化的土壤中活性土压的概率分析
Tran Vu-Hoang1, Tan Nguyen2, Jim Shiau3
1Faculty of Civil Engineering, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Scientific reports
|March 15, 2025
概括
本研究提出了一个概率框架来评估土壤压力,使用随机场结合空间变化. 机器学习模型预测故障概率,增强地质技术设计,以提高可靠性和成本效益.
科学领域:
- 地质技术工程 地质技术工程
- 计算力学 计算力学 计算力学
- 风险分析 风险分析
背景情况:
- 土壤的特性,如摩擦角和单位重量,往往表现出空间的变化.
- 准确评估活跃地球压力对于安全和经济的地质技术设计至关重要.
- 现有的方法可能无法完全捕捉土壤属性的随机性对稳定性的影响.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个概率框架,以评估活跃地球压力,考虑到土壤的空间变化.
- 整合先进的计算技术和机器学习以进行高效的分析.
- 为工程师处理地质技术不确定性提供实用设计工具.
主要方法:
- 使用随机场与日志正态分布和空间相关性模拟土壤属性.
- 使用蒙特卡洛模拟 (MCS) 与有限元极限分析 (FELA) 集成.
- 使用多变量自适应回归线 (MARS) 来预测故障概率,并对超参数调整进行两相优化.
- 结合预测可靠性的置信区间和随机失效机制的自适应有限元网格.
主要成果:
- 一个概率框架有效地评估在空间土壤变化下活跃的地球压力.
- 机器学习模型 (MARS) 准确预测故障概率,提高计算效率.
- 适应性网格捕捉复杂的随机失效机制,揭示了对空间变化影响的洞察力.
- 参数轮设计图表是为实际工程应用而生成的.
结论:
- 综合方法通过量化与土壤变异性相关的不确定性来增强地质技术设计.
- 开发的框架和工具允许更可靠和更具成本效益的地质技术解决方案.
- 这项研究为工程师提供了一个强大的方法,以优化在可变的土壤条件下安全边际.
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