从模式到路径:老龄化自我感知的潜在类轨迹及其对多状态功能过渡的因果影响
Lingjun Liu1, Boshu Mao1, Fei Ji2
1School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University, No. 220 Handan Road, Yangpu District, Shanghai, China.
Archives of gerontology and geriatrics
|March 15, 2025
概括
对衰老 (SPA) 的负面自我认知会影响老年人的健康轨迹. 在65岁之前的干预可以通过解决这些观念来延长健康的预期寿命.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 老龄化的自我感知 (SPA) 影响老年人的健康结果.
- 了解异质的SPA轨迹对于有针对性的干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定SPA的不同发展轨迹.
- 检查SPA对功能健康转变的因果关系.
- 量化由于负SPA的健康预期寿命的损失.
主要方法:
- 隐形类轨迹建模应用于纵向数据 (n=14,020).
- 多状态马尔科夫模型来评估SPA对功能过渡的影响.
- 反事实框架来估计预期寿命损失.
主要成果:
- 确定了两个SPA轨迹:高水平 (57.75%) 和低水平 (42.25%).
- 负的SPA增加了功能障碍的风险 (HR=1.31) 和降低了康复的概率 (HR=0.61).
- 在65岁时,负SPA减少了总预期寿命2.18年,健康预期寿命约3年.
结论:
- 存在不同的SPA轨迹,因果关系影响健康转型.
- 针对负SPA的早期干预,特别是在65岁之前,可以改善健康的预期寿命.
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