在极端气候条件下量化连锁停电,考虑可再生能源的整合
Luo Xu1,2, Ning Lin3,4, H Vincent Poor5
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, 08544, Princeton, NJ, USA. luoxu@princeton.edu.
Nature communications
|March 16, 2025
概括
极端气候和可再生能源的整合可能导致停电. 一个新的模型表明,一些组件故障可以提高电网弹性,但高太阳能集成没有存储增加了停电风险.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 能源系统工程 能源系统工程
- 网络弹性 网络弹性
背景情况:
- 像风这样的极端气候对电网构成风险.
- 整合对环境敏感的可再生能源可以放大这些风险.
- 连续的停电威胁到关键基础设施和公共安全.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个合的气候-能源模型,用于评估级联停电.
- 综合分析极端气候对可再生能源发电和电网的影响.
- 确定影响极端天气事件下的系统弹性因素.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种结合的气候能源模型.
- 纳入对可再生能源发电,输电和配电网络的影响.
- 使用2022年风菲奥纳在波多黎各的停电数据验证了模型.
主要成果:
- 该模型捕获了Fiona风期间的天气引起的中断.
- 揭示了一个反直觉的弹性模式:关键组件的早期故障可以提高整体系统的弹性.
- 灵敏度分析显示,低于45%的计后太阳能集成在此事件期间对弹性产生最小的影响.
结论:
- 在没有储能的情况下,太阳能集成的高水平 (超过45%) 显著增加了灾难性停电的可能性.
- 开发的模型为了解和减轻气候相关的停电风险提供了一个新的工具.
- 通过对组件故障的战略管理和储能集成,可以增强系统的弹性.
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