死亡风险和负担归因于中国的复合寒冷极端:全国时间序列研究研究
Zhiying Jiang1, Xiaohui Ji1, Yulin Zhuo1
1Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
Environment international
|March 16, 2025
概括
复合寒冷极端 (CCE) 在中国显著增加死亡风险,比单个寒冷的日子或夜晚构成更大的威胁. 需要公共卫生政策来减轻这种日益增长的死亡负担,特别是在脆弱人群中.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 全球变暖研究一直专注于极端热量,对复合寒冷极端 (CCE) 对死亡率的影响数据有限.
- 了解CCE对健康的影响对于气候变化适应战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查复合寒冷极端 (CCE) 与中国死亡率之间的关联.
- 量化可归因于CCE的死亡负担,并确定高风险群体.
主要方法:
- 利用来自364个中国地点 (2006-2017年) 的每日气象,空气污染和死亡率数据.
- 定义CCE为一个寒冷的夜晚,接着是寒冷的一天.
- 员工分布式滞后非线性模型和元分析来评估CCE死亡率关联和负担.
主要成果:
- 与寒冷的日子 (RR=1.23) 或夜晚 (RR=1.14) 相比,CCE显示死亡风险明显更高 (RR=1.63).
- 老年人 (≥75岁),农村地区以及中国南部和中部地区的死亡风险较高.
- CCE占总死亡人数的46.03%,男性,老年人和呼吸系统疾病患者的负担更高.
结论:
- 复合寒冷极端在中国构成严重的死亡风险和负担.
- 中国中部/南部的老年人,农村人口和个人尤其容易受到伤害.
- 制定有针对性的临床和公共卫生政策对于降低CCE相关死亡率至关重要.
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