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在不同的气候,人口和适应情景下,澳大利亚的高温和心血管疾病
Jingwen Liu1, Blesson M Varghese1, Alana Hansen1
1School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Level 4, 50 Rundle Mall Plaza, Rundle Mall, Adelaide, South Australia 5000, Australia.
European heart journal
|March 16, 2025
概括
高温在澳大利亚显著增加了心血管疾病 (CVD) 负担. 预计未来的气候变化将使这一负担增加一倍以上,迫切需要采取适应和减缓战略.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 心血管流行病学心血管流行病学
- 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 心血管疾病 (CVD) 是全球和澳大利亚的主要死亡原因.
- 暴露于热量是心血管疾病的已知危险因素.
- 了解气温上升对心血管疾病负担的影响对于公共卫生至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估目前澳大利亚因高温而导致的心血管疾病的负担.
- 在不同的气候变化情景下,预测心血管疾病的未来负担.
- 为公共卫生制定适应和缓解策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用澳大利亚疾病负担数据库进行心血管疾病指标.
- 使用元回归模型来估计与高温相关的心血管疾病死亡率和发病率风险.
- 使用代表性度途径 (RCP4.5和RCP8.5) 考虑人口变化和适应,预计未来的心血管疾病负担.
主要成果:
- 在2003年至2018年期间,高温占澳大利亚心血管疾病负担的7.3%.
- 预计可归因的CVD负担将在所有审查的气候场景中稳步增加.
- 根据RCP8.5,到2050年代,如果不采取适应措施,心血管疾病负担可能会增加一倍以上,北领地受到影响最大.
结论:
- 预计温度升高会加重心血管疾病的负担.
- 紧急的适应和缓解措施对于应对气候变化对心脏病的健康影响至关重要.
- 这项研究强调了积极的公共卫生干预措施的必要性.
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