建模空间PM2.5风险动态和预测巴基斯坦的疾病负担
Najeebullah Khan1, Shamsuddin Shahid2, Kamal Ahmed3
1Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru, Malaysia; Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering Science and Technology, Lasbela University of Agriculture, Water and Marine Sciences, 90150, Balochistan, Pakistan.
Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)
|March 16, 2025
概括
细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 造成的空气污染是巴基斯坦日益严重的健康危机,死亡人数急剧上升. 迫切需要采取缓解政策,以制不断升级的PM2.5暴露和相关死亡率.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 空气污染,特别是PM2.5,在巴基斯坦构成了重大公共卫生挑战.
- 长期健康影响和PM2.5暴露和死亡率的时空变化尚未得到充分研究.
- 需要进行高分辨率分析,以了解随着时间的推移暴露趋势和相关死亡率.
研究的目的:
- 调查2000年至2021年巴基斯坦PM2.5暴露的时空变化及其相关的死亡负担.
- 预测未来的时空变化死亡率在业务常规和缓解场景下.
- 确定与PM2.5暴露相关的高风险区域和人口脆弱性.
主要方法:
- 应用了全球暴露死亡率模型 (GEMM),使用0.01°分辨率的PM2.5和人口数据.
- 对缺血性心脏病 (IHD),脑血管疾病 (CEV),COPD,LRI和肺癌 (LC) 的量化PM2.5归因死亡率.
- 分析了基于不同暴露场景的时空趋势和预测未来的死亡率.
主要成果:
- PM2.5水平和相关的死亡率在巴基斯坦各地不断升级和扩大.
- 在人口密集地区确定了PM2.5度超过80μg/m3的高风险区域.
- 与PM2.5相关的死亡人数从2000年的57,100人增加到2021年的157,762人,其中IHD是最敏感的.
- 在印度河流域附近发现了IHD和LRI死亡率的热点.
- 中部地区的每年PM2.5增加超过2μg/m3.
结论:
- 未经控制的PM2.5升高,到2030年每年可能导致超过29万例死亡,IHD显著增加.
- 缓解情景显示,到2030年,死亡率有可能大幅降低到29,062人.
- 紧急实施缓解政策对于解决人口脆弱性和减少空气污染带来的生存风险至关重要.
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