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在不确定性条件下,用于地下水位模拟的混合葡萄 - 模糊模型
Roghayeh Ahmadifar1, Hamid R Safavi2, Rasoul Mirabbasi3
1Department of Civil Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|March 17, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了一种混合配方-模糊模型,用于准确地模拟地下水位,解决不确定性和可变依赖性,以更好地管理水资源.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源管理 水文和水资源管理
- 环境建模环境建模
- 统计水文学统计水文学
背景情况:
- 地下水位模拟对于可持续的水资源管理至关重要.
- 输入数据,模型参数和物理过程中的不确定性挑战了准确的地下水建模.
- 水文系统内的可变依赖性使模拟工作复杂化.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的混合模型,整合配方理论和模糊逻辑,用于每月的地下水位模拟.
- 考虑输入变量之间的依赖结构和模型不确定性.
- 为了增强纳贾法巴德含水层内科阿巴德地区的地下水位模拟.
主要方法:
- 利用C-葡萄树形结构来建模降水,温度,地表水和排水之间的依赖关系.
- 采用条件模拟用于确定性的地下水位模拟.
- 通过定义 copula 参数的 α 切割来处理参数不确定性,内置了模糊逻辑.
主要成果:
- 确定性模型实现了高精度,R平方值为0.88 (内库阿巴德-右) 和0.83 (内库阿巴德-左).
- -模糊模型产生了一系列的地下水位与不同的置信区间,反映参数的不确定性.
- 该模型通过考虑输入变量依赖和可能性不确定性,成功模拟了地下水位.
结论:
- 开发的葡萄-模糊模型为地下水位模拟中的不确定性评估提供了灵活的方法.
- 决策者可以根据成员级别选择信任区间,帮助量身定制的水资源规划.
- 这种混合模型为在不确定性条件下管理水资源提供了一个强大的框架.
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