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通过时空积累电气碳足迹建模,解读中国的脱碳轨迹

Jing Tang¹, Rui Shan², Peng Wang³

¹Innovation Centre for Environment and Resources, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, No.333 Longteng Road, Songjiang District, Shanghai 201620, China.

|March 17, 2025

概括

一个新的模型通过包括动态低碳能源基础设施 (LCPI) 来准确评估电力碳足迹. 这种动态方法揭示了显著的减少,并突出了LCPI生产排放对整体碳减排目标的持久影响.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
能源政策能源政策
气候变化建模模型

背景情况:

气候贸易政策越来越关注商品的碳足迹,其中电力是关键指标.
快速的能源转型和低碳能源基础设施 (LCPI) 的动态部署使准确的碳足迹评估变得复杂.
现有的模型往往无法解释LCPI的时空动态,导致潜在的低估脱碳化进展.

研究的目的:

开发和应用一个创新的时空模型来评估电力脱碳轨迹.
评估动态安装的低碳能源基础设施 (LCPI) 对中国国家和省级电力碳足迹的影响.
为支持有系统地减少与能源相关的碳足迹提供针对性政策的见解.

主要方法:

开发一种新的时空模型,包括动态安装的低碳能源基础设施 (LCPI).
该模型应用于中国电网,以预测国家和省级电力碳足迹.
分析LCPI部署的影响,考虑当前和历史生产排放.

主要成果:

在积极的脱碳场景下,预计到2050年电力碳足迹将达到0.12公斤CO2-eq/kWh,与忽视LCPI动态的模型相比减少38.13%.
如果忽视空间时间积累的LCPI的异质碳足迹,预计足迹的差异为19.18%.
历史上LCPI生产排放量占中国目前电力碳足迹的高达57.94%,这凸显了可再生能源投资的长期影响.

结论:

对LCPI的动态时空建模对于准确的电力脱碳评估至关重要.
这些发现强调了与生产低碳能源基础设施相关的显著,长期的碳足迹.
该研究提供了一个可扩展的路线图,用于制定有针对性的政策,在全球范围内减少与能源相关的碳足迹.

关键词:

能源管理能源管理能源政策能源政策工程工程师工程师工程师环境科学环境科学

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