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基于FLUS-InVEST模型的多场景土地利用变化模拟及其对河南省生态系统服务功能的影响

Jincai Zhang¹, Ling Li¹, Qingsong Li¹

¹College of Resources and Environmental Sciences Henan Agricultural University Zhengzhou Henan China.

Ecology and evolution

|March 17, 2025

概括

河南省未来的土地使用变化将对生态系统服务 (ES) 产生重大影响. 场景分析显示,水产量,碳储存和息地质量各不相同的下降,这对于可持续发展规划至关重要.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
生态生态学生态生态学
可持续发展可持续发展可持续发展

背景情况:

评估未来土地利用对生态系统服务 (ES) 的影响对于区域可持续发展至关重要.
在不同未来情景下对河南省的ES的研究有限.
本研究通过分析历史和预测的ES变化来解决这一差距.

研究的目的:

在河南省模拟和分析历史和未来的生态系统服务 (ES).
评估不同共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下的水产量 (WY),碳储存 (CS),息地质量 (HQ) 和营养递送比率 (NDR) 的空间和时间分布.
构建和评估河南省综合生态系统服务 (CES) 指数.

主要方法:

利用FLUS模型进行土地利用模拟,验证其准确性.
模拟了四个关键的ES功能 (WY,CS,HQ,NDR) 和一个CES指数.
根据两个SSP场景 (SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5) 预计ES和CES在未来时期的变化.

主要成果:

在河南省的土地利用模拟中,FLUS模型表现出高精度.
SSP2-4.5情景:建筑用地扩建导致总部,总部和水资源能力下降. SSP5-8.5情景:耕地增加增加了水产,但减少了其他ES.
SSP2-4.5显示出最大的CES下降,主要是由于城市和农村侵占森林和耕地. SSP5-8.5表明CES增长,但与2020年相比,到2050年CES的总体平均值较低.

结论:

在不同的SSP场景下,土地利用变化对河南省的生态系统服务产生了重大影响.
城市化和农业扩张对ES构成威胁,需要有针对性的可持续发展政策.
该研究为制定政策和未来在各种场景下进行ES影响研究提供了关键的参考.

关键词:

这就是FLUS模型.河南省河南省在InVEST模型中,投资者全面的CES指数服务生态系统.生态系统服务生态系统服务土地使用变化土地使用变化

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