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农业对水能平衡的影响因气候而异

Masoud Zaerpour¹, Shadi Hatami¹, André S Ballarin²

¹Department of Civil Engineering, Schulich School of Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

|March 17, 2025

概括

农业显著影响水能平衡,改变了区域的水资源供应. 耕地扩张是这些变化的主要驱动力,特别是在温带和积雪的气候中,需要将其纳入水资源管理.

科学领域:

水文学的水文学
环境科学环境科学
农业科学农业科学

背景情况:

农业是全球主要的水消费者,对区域水能平衡产生重大影响.
全球人口增长增加了农业用水需求,加剧了水能平衡的变化.
了解农业在水能动态中的作用对于可持续的水资源管理至关重要.

研究的目的:

确定和量化农业扩张对水能平衡的影响.
在农业增长的水域中探索布迪科曲线的偏差.
通过因果发现,将这些偏差与水能平衡的变化联系起来.

主要方法:

从1342个不同气候类别 (温带,雪地) 的水域收集的经验数据分析.
应用因果发现算法,将农业扩张 (耕地百分比 - CL%) 与水能平衡变化联系起来.
对从1980年到2014年的数据进行分析,检查与降水-流量 (P-Q) 和干旱-流量 (AR-Q) 因果强度的相关性.

主要成果:

耕地百分比 (CL%) 是影响布迪科曲线偏差的主要因素,解释了温带 (47%) 和积雪 (37%) 流域的巨大差异.
在温带流域中,CL%加剧了降水驱动的偏差 (负P-Q相关性),并显示了干旱驱动的相互作用 (中等负AR-Q相关性).
在被雪覆盖的水域中,CL%与P-Q因果强度正相关,与AR-Q因果强度负相关,突显了干旱的次要作用.

结论:

农业活动,特别是耕地扩张,显著改变了区域的水能平衡.
农业的影响在气候类型之间有所不同,降水和干旱的相互作用不同.
将农业影响纳入水能平衡评估是确保未来供水的关键.

关键词:

布迪科 (Budyko) 的水平衡.农业农业农业农业灌灌方式水平衡水平衡水平衡水平衡

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