使用强度分析和蜂自动机模型建模灌木侵占动态.
Ntuthuko Prosperous Mncwabe1, John Odindi2, Trylee Nyasha Matongera3
1Discipline of Geography and Environmental Science, School of Agricultural Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Scottsville, Pietermaritzburg, 3209, South Africa. 218003689@stu.ukzn.ac.za.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|March 18, 2025
概括
布什侵占正在增加,威胁草原和生物多样性. 未来的预测显示持续扩张,需要紧急管理策略进行景观恢复和保护工作.
科学领域:
- 生态动态和土地覆盖变化分析.
- 环境监测中的遥感应用.
- 保护科学和保护区管理.
背景情况:
- 布什侵占对草原,生物多样性和生态系统服务构成全球威胁.
- 了解侵占动态对于有效的保护和土地管理至关重要.
- 之前的研究强调了木质植被扩张对生态完整性的负面影响.
研究的目的:
- 综合分析过去,现在和未来的林侵占趋势.
- 在保护区内量化土地覆盖的转变及其驱动因素.
- 为草原恢复和生物多样性保护的管理策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用RapidEye和PlanetScope卫星图像进行土地覆盖面的分析.
- 应用强度分析用于评估历史侵占模式 (2009-2023年).
- 采用蜂自动机 (CA) 模型来预测未来的入侵 (2028年,2033年).
主要成果:
- 布什侵占显示在研究区域内不断增加的趋势.
- 观察到土地覆盖面的显著变化,木质植被以草原为代价扩大.
- 未来的预测表明,到2028年和2033年,灌木侵占率将分别增加5.50%和6.67%.
结论:
- 这项研究强调了灌木侵占草原生态系统的不断升级的威胁.
- 这些发现迫切需要对当前的管理方案进行重新评估和改进.
- 对侵占趋势的洞察力支持对景观恢复和保护的知情决策.
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