估计土耳其的艾滋病毒发病率:两种数学模型的结果
Emine Yaylali1, Zikriye Melisa Erdogan2
1Industrial Engineering Department, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Türkiye. emineyaylali@itu.edu.tr.
BMC infectious diseases
|March 18, 2025
概括
在土耳其,艾滋病毒发病率正在上升,主要是由与男性发生性关系的男性和异性恋者推动的. 数学模型预测,到2030年,艾滋病毒病例将大幅增加,这突显了迫切的公共卫生问题.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 全球艾滋病毒发病率正在下降,但土耳其在过去五年中出现了显著的增长.
- 现有的预防工作可能不足以制土耳其日益增长的艾滋病毒流行病.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用数学模型来分析和预测到2030年土耳其的艾滋病毒发病率和流行率.
- 确定推动艾滋病毒传播的关键风险群体,并评估护理连续性.
主要方法:
- 使用伯努利模型估计各种风险群体 (异性恋者,MSM,PWID,FSW) 的年度艾滋病毒发病率.
- 开发了一种动态的隔间模型,用于预测2024年至2030年的艾滋病毒发病率,死亡率和持续护理指标.
- 对关键模型参数进行敏感性分析,以确保结果的可靠性.
主要成果:
- 与男性发生性关系的男性 (41%) 和高危异性恋者 (38%) 是艾滋病毒发病率的主要驱动因素.
- 尽管种群规模较小,但PWID和FSW具有很高的传播风险.
- 预计到2030年,艾滋病毒发病率将增加2.9倍,达到105,202例.
- 在艾滋病毒阳性人口中,很大一部分 (49%) 仍未被诊断出来.
结论:
- 预计土耳其的艾滋病毒发病率将大幅上升,可能成为主要的公共卫生威胁.
- 目前的预防策略可能需要加强,以应对不断增加的艾滋病毒负担.
- 针对高风险群体的有针对性的干预措施对于控制疫情至关重要.
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