通过基于回归和软计算的机器学习增强标准化降水蒸发透气指数预测,用于伊朗的干旱和超干旱地区
Saeid Bour1, Zahra Kayhomayoon2, Farhad Hassani3
1Department of Civil Engineering, Islamic Azad University Nour Branch, Nur, Iran.
PloS one
|March 18, 2025
概括
机器学习模型有效地预测了标准化降水蒸发透气指数 (SPEI) 干旱指数. 整合大规模的气候信号可以提高各种气候的干旱预测准确度.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 干旱对水资源,农业和生态系统构成重大气候风险.
- 准确的干旱预测对于有效的水资源管理至关重要.
- 机器学习为分析复杂气候系统提供了先进的方法.
研究的目的:
- 评估机器学习模型在预测标准化降雨蒸发指数 (SPEI) 的有效性.
- 评估大规模气候信号对干旱预测准确性的影响.
- 在不同的气候条件下比较LSSVR,GMDH和MARS模型的性能.
主要方法:
- 计算标准化的降雨蒸发指数 (SPEI).
- 使用大规模的气候信号 (NAO,AO,PDO,SOI) 和气象变量 (温度,降水,蒸发).
- 应用和比较最小方位支向量回归 (LSSVR),数据处理组方法 (GMDH) 和多变量自适应回归线 (MARS) 模型.
主要成果:
- 在中等干旱气候 (RMSE=0.26,MAE=0.17,NSE=0.95) 中,GMDH模型表现出色.
- 在干旱和寒冷的气候 (RMSE=0.22,MAE=0.18,NSE=0.95) 和干旱和热的气候 (RMSE=0.29,MAE=0.19,NSE=0.93) 中,LSSVR模型的准确性更高.
- 大规模的气候信号显著有利于SPEI预测,MARS显示出强大的校准性能.
结论:
- 机器学习模型是预测 SPEI 干旱指数在不同气候区域的宝贵工具.
- 大规模气候信号的整合增强了干旱预测能力.
- 模型性能因气候类型而异,凸显出需要量身定制的方法.
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