管理机构可以利用动物社会结构来对野生动物进行疾病监测和监测
James G Booth1, Brenda J Hanley2, Noelle E Thompson3,4
1Department of Statistics and Data Science, 1172 Comstock Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853, USA.
Journal of wildlife diseases
|March 18, 2025
概括
野生动物疾病监测需要比预期更少的样本,当动物与社会联系时. 这一发现可以降低成本,提高野生动物群体无病声明的效率.
科学领域:
- 野生动物健康 野生动物健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 有效的野生动物监测对于保持健康的动物种群至关重要.
- 目前的监控方法因成本和后勤复杂性而面临挑战.
- 确定足够的样本大小来宣布人口无疾病是一个关键的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 调查动物社会结构对疾病监测样本大小计算的影响.
- 开发更准确的样本大小公式,以考虑人口内的疾病传播动态.
主要方法:
- 分析包含社会分组的疾病传播模型.
- 将新型样本大小计算与现有的超几何和二项模型进行比较.
主要成果:
- 动物之间的疾病传播容易度显著影响所需的样本大小.
- 在社会群体中正相关的疾病状态大大减少了必要的样本大小.
- 现有的模型可能会高估社会结构化的野生动物种群的样本大小要求.
结论:
- 社会结构和传播率是野生动物疾病监测样本大小决定的关键因素.
- 利用社会属性可以节省大量成本,提高监控效率.
- 这项研究为野生动物的无病声明提供了更现实的框架.
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