基于SEER数据预测乳腺癌与肺转移的生存率的诺莫图
Cheng-Liang Chen1, Ni-Ya Chen2, Shuo Wu3
1Department of Thyroid and Breast Surgery, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China.
Translational cancer research
|March 19, 2025
概括
这项研究开发了一种名谱,用于预测肺转移性乳腺癌 (BCLM) 患者的存活率. 该模型准确预测整体存活率 (OS) 和乳腺癌特定存活率 (CSS),有助于临床决策.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 癌症研究 癌症研究
背景情况:
- 乳腺癌 (BC) 发病率的增加需要改进生存预测模型.
- 乳腺癌 (BCLM) 肺转移对预后构成重大挑战.
- 准确的生存预测对于管理BCLM患者至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为预测BCLM患者的生存期,开发一个预后性诺莫格拉姆框架.
- 在BCLM中确定影响整体生存 (OS) 和乳腺癌特异性生存 (CSS) 的关键预后因素.
- 为了验证开发的nomogram的预测准确性.
主要方法:
- 使用了监测,流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 数据库 (2010-2015).
- 包括4,309名BCLM患者,随机分配到培训 (n=3,231) 和验证 (n=1,078) 队列.
- 进行单变量和多变量分析以确定预后因素;开发了用于OS和CSS预测的nomograms.
主要成果:
- 纳米图包括年龄,婚姻状况,种族,初级手术,BC亚型,等级,T阶段和化疗.
- 在训练集中,OS和CSS的一致性指数 (C指数) 为0.77,实现了高预测准确度.
- 验证队列通过ROC曲线,校准图和决策曲线分析 (DCA) 显示出强大的预测有效性.
结论:
- 开发的诺米图为BCLM患者的OS和CSS提供了可靠和有效的预测.
- 诺姆图可以帮助临床医生评估患者的死亡风险.
- 该工具支持个性化治疗策略和BCLM的预后咨询.
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