在炎热的环境下预测荷尔斯坦山牛和牛的生殖表现:一个时间序列分析
Elizabeth Pérez-Rebolloso1, José E García2, Juan L Morales1
1Department of Veterinary Science, Autonomous Agrarian University Antonio Narro, Torreon, Mexico.
Tropical animal health and production
|March 19, 2025
概括
高环境温度显著影响奶牛的生殖表现,降低了怀孕率并增加了每次怀孕的服务. 自主回归集成移动平均 (ARIMA) 模型准确预测乳牛和母牛的季节性繁殖趋势.
科学领域:
- 动物科学动物科学
- 生殖生物学 生殖生物学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 奶牛养殖地区的高环境温度对动物繁殖构成重大挑战.
- 了解气候对生殖效率的影响对于奶牛群管理至关重要.
- 以前的研究表明,热应激与牛的生育能力之间存在负相关性.
研究的目的:
- 预测高输入乳制品群的每月怀孕率 (PR) 和每次怀孕服务 (SP).
- 评估气候条件,特别是温度湿度指数 (THI) 对生殖表现的影响.
- 评估自回归集成移动平均 (ARIMA) 模型对预测生殖结果的有效性.
主要方法:
- 利用从2014年到2020年的历史数据,用于在高温区的大型奶牛群.
- 使用自回归集成移动平均 (ARIMA) 模型进行时间序列分析和PR和SP的预测.
- 分析了牛和小牛的温度-湿度指数 (THI) 和生殖参数 (PR和SP) 之间的相关性.
主要成果:
- 预计牛的最低PR为8月 (12.5%),最高为1月 (35.3%).
- 在各种时间间隔中发现THI和牛PR之间存在显著的负相关性.
- 雌牛表现出明显的季节性PR模式,负THI相关性出现在前10个月.
结论:
- 气候,特别是高温,对奶牛和母牛的季节性繁殖节奏有很大影响.
- 在具有挑战性的气候条件下,ARIMA模型提供了一种可靠的方法来预测乳制品动物在挑战性气候条件下的生殖性能.
- 这些发现强调了需要采用减热策略,以减轻气候对乳牛群生育能力的负面影响.
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