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来自北极变暖的远程连接抑制了欧亚中部的长期变暖
Hainan Gong1, Lin Wang1, James A Screen2
1Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application and Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Science advances
|March 19, 2025
概括
快速的北极变暖,特别是巴伦茨-卡拉海 (BKS),影响了欧亚冬季气候. 虽然内部变化主导了短期降温,但BKS的变暖影响了多十年的欧亚大陆温度.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 北极研究研究北极研究
背景情况:
- 北极变暖对中度天气模式的影响是气候研究的一个重要领域.
- 巴伦茨-卡拉海 (BKS) 地区正在经历快速变暖,促使对其气候影响进行调查.
研究的目的:
- 为了分辨内部大气动力学的影响从热力学强迫的巴伦茨-卡拉海变暖在欧亚冬季气候.
- 量化不同因素对观测到的欧亚冷却趋势的贡献.
主要方法:
- 使用一种仅基于观测数据的扩展动态调整方法.
- 分离了内部大气变化和巴伦茨-卡拉海变暖对大气循环的影响.
主要成果:
- 观测到的欧亚冷却是由内部大气变化和巴伦茨-卡拉海变暖推动的.
- 内部变化,特别是北极振荡,是1991-2012年冷却的主要驱动因素.
- 巴伦茨-卡拉海的变暖对年间/十年间的影响较弱,但对多十年级的影响很大,导致欧亚大陆的"变暖洞" (1980-2022年).
结论:
- 对巴伦茨-卡拉海变暖的弱但不可忽视的欧亚冷却反应存在于多十年的时间尺度上.
- 这些发现增强了对北极变化和中度气候变化之间的因果关系的理解.
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