评估在香港流感流行病的影响
Jessica Y Wong1, Justin K Cheung1, Anne M Presanis2
1WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
The Journal of infectious diseases
|March 19, 2025
概括
流感流行病每年变化,影响人口和医疗保健系统. 流行性流感严重性评估 (PISA) 框架有效地评估季节性流感的影响,使用各种数据来评估公共卫生准备.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病建模传染病建模
背景情况:
- 评估流感流行病的影响对于了解人口和医疗负担至关重要.
- 有信息的预防和控制措施,包括疫苗接种和抗病毒药物,依赖于准确的影响评估.
- 流感影响评估对于有效的流行病准备至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过世界卫生组织的流行性流感严重性评估 (PISA) 框架评估和比较流感影响参数.
- 估计流感相关的过度呼吸道死亡率,住院病例和重症监护室住院病例.
- 将实时影响评估与季节性流行病确定的值进行比较.
主要方法:
- 利用一个通用的添加模型来估计1998-2019年在香港的流感影响参数.
- 雇员历史死亡率,住院,ICU入院和流感监测数据.
- 使用峰值参数值 (1998-2017年) 估计强度值,并将其与2018-2019年实时数据进行比较.
主要成果:
- 在将2018-2019年数据与值进行比较时,观察到不同影响参数之间的良好一致性.
- 2019年A型流感疫情的整体影响中等,在0-64岁的年龄组中,重症监护室的影响过多.
- 2018年B型流感流行病在所有年龄组都显示出非常高的整体影响.
结论:
- 流感流行病的影响每年都会波动,这凸显了需要适应性评估工具的需要.
- 该PISA框架有效地促进使用各种数据源进行季节性流感流行病影响评估.
- PISA框架可以实时或追溯地实施,以帮助公共卫生政策和准备.
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