穿越悬崖:来自青铜时代晚期崩的教训
S E Galaitsi1, Benjamin D Trump2, Eric H Cline3
1Credere Associates LLC, Westbrook, Maine, USA.
概括
晚青铜时代 (LBA) 崩的结果是相互连接的社会通过他们的网络结构放大了威胁. 这种系统脆弱性为了解现代全球挑战和社会复杂性提供了教训.
科学领域:
- 考古学的考古学
- 网络科学 网络科学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 晚青铜时代 (LBA) 东地中海在公元前1200年左右经历了广泛的社会崩.
- 考古证据显示,该地区的城市中心被摧毁和废弃.
- 之前的研究表明系统性失败,而不是孤立的事件.
研究的目的:
- 测试LBA社会网络结构放大了威胁的假设,导致一连串的失败.
- 分析相互连接在系统崩中的作用.
- 在LBA漏洞和当代全球挑战之间进行平行.
主要方法:
- 晚青铜时代社会网络分析.
- 考察关于城市毁灭和废弃的考古数据.
- 历史系统崩和现代全球风险的比较研究.
主要成果:
- 这项研究支持了LBA网络结构传播问题,导致系统崩的假设.
- 互联互通,在促进繁荣的同时,也放大了脆弱性.
- 这些发现强调了网络动态如何导致级联失败.
结论:
- 低收入社会的崩被它们相互连接的网络结构所加剧.
- 了解历史网络漏洞可以了解当前的全球系统性风险.
- 现代复杂的系统可能会面临类似的风险,因为它们接近承载能力.
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