一种用于估计多个尺度上的病原体存在,流行,负载和动态的新方法
John F Grider1,2, Bradley J Udell3, Brian E Reichert3
1Colorado Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Colorado State University, 1484 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, USA. jack.grider@state.co.us.
Scientific reports
|March 20, 2025
概括
一个新的模型通过考虑检测缺陷和病原体负载来改善病原体监测. 这可以更早地检测出蝙蝠的白鼻综合症等疾病,有助于保护工作.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 野生动物疾病是野生动物疾病.
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 定量实时PCR (qPCR) 广泛用于病原体监测.
- 现有的定量框架往往没有考虑不完美的检测,病原体动态和负载,特别是在疾病早期阶段.
- 这种限制可能会导致低估病原体的存在和延迟干预.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的多层次的多尺度动态占用障碍模型 (MS-DOHM),以进行更强大的病原体动态估计.
- 将病原体负载和不完美的检测纳入占用模型.
- 为了提高对冬眠蝙蝠中Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd) 动态的理解.
主要方法:
- 开发并应用了一个分层的多规模动态占用障碍模型 (MS-DOHM).
- 使用了来自蝙蝠冬眠中的Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd) 采样的qPCR数据.
- 将MS-DOHM结果与标准动态占用模型和原始检测/非检测方法进行比较.
主要成果:
- 据MS-DOHM估计,现场水平的病原体存在率高达比更简单的模型高35.7%.
- 使用MS-DOHM估计病原体的到来时间是两到三年前.
- 该模型表明预测的病原体负载更高,模型适合性和预测能力得到改善.
结论:
- 在多个尺度上对病原体负载和流行率的计算显著改变了对病原体动态的理解.
- 该MS-DOHM框架允许早期检测和潜在的早期保护干预措施,对疾病,如白鼻综合征.
- 这种多层次的方法提高了病原体监测模型的准确性和预测能力.
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