在2009年至2018年期间,模拟和映射与泰国青少年出生率相关的上下文因素
Thutchanut Phantra1,2, Thanapoom Rattananupong1, Kittipong Saejeng3
1Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Rama IV Road, Pathumwan, Bangkok, 10330, Thailand.
BMC public health
|March 20, 2025
概括
泰国 泰国 泰国 泰国
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 空间流行病学 空间流行病学
背景情况:
- 泰国旨在减少青少年出生率 (ABR),以实现可持续发展目标3.7.2.2.
- 目标是到2027年,将每1000名15-19岁女性的ABR降至15以下.
- 目前的ABR在2023年为每1000人20.9%.
研究的目的:
- 在泰国地理上描述青少年出生率 (ABRs).
- 识别空间模式,包括热点/冷点和异常值.
- 确定ABR与地区级上下文因素之间的关联.
主要方法:
- 使用普通最小平方 (OLS) 和地理加权回归 (GWR).
- 分析了2009-2012年和2013-2018年的空间模式和上下文因素关联.
- 确保了OLS模型的有效性,VIF<5.0.
主要成果:
- 在地区一级,青少年出生率 (ABR) 是空间随机的.
- 与增加的ABR (2009-2012) 相关的因素包括收入不平等,收入,支出,由女性领导的家庭和单亲家庭.
- 与增加的ABR (2013-2018) 相关的因素包括收入不平等,收入,离婚率,青少年失业率,义务教育后的教育,以及获得青少年友好的健康和安全堕胎服务.
结论:
- 青少年出生率 (ABR) 或其决定因素没有发现显著的地理差异.
- 一个统一的政策方法来减少ABR可以在全国范围内应用.
- 这支持泰国所有地区的有针对性的干预.
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