气候变化对健康和药物需求的影响
Rand health quarterly
|March 20, 2025
概括
气候变化将增加诸如心血管疾病和喘等慢性疾病,提高药物需求. 对这种激增的计划对于防止医疗供应链中断和保护患者健康至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 药物经济学 药物经济学
背景情况:
- 预计气候变化将增加极端天气事件,加剧急性和慢性疾病的流行.
- 疾病发病率上升可能会增加对基本药物的需求,可能会压迫现有的医疗保健供应链.
- 目前的医疗供应链面临着巨大的压力,可能导致患者的不良结果和医疗保健成本的增加.
研究的目的:
- 估计气候变化对四种慢性疾病:心血管疾病 (CVD),喘,末期脏疾病 (ESRD) 和阿尔茨海默病的患病率的影响.
- 预测随后对关键相关药物的需求:美托普罗罗尔,阿尔布特罗尔,肝素和多尼佩西尔.
- 根据气候变化情景,为政策制定提供信息,以确保制药供应链在气候变化情景下具有弹性.
主要方法:
- 进行了对同行评审和灰色文献的环境扫描.
- 开发了一种医疗状况特定的系统动态模型.
- 分析了气候变化,疾病流行率和药物需求之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 预计气候变化将增加心血管疾病,喘,ESRD和阿尔茨海默病的患病率.
- 这种慢性疾病的增加将导致对美托普罗罗尔,阿尔布特罗尔,肝素和多尼佩西尔的需求增加.
- 开发的模型量化了在各种气候变化情景下潜在的毒品需求.
结论:
- 由于气候变化导致慢性疾病的预期增加,需要积极规划药物供应.
- 如果未能解决预计的药物需求,可能会导致医疗保健系统的重大压力和患者健康结果的负面影响.
- 系统动态模型为决策者提供了一个有价值的工具,以确保在气候变化影响中药物可用性.
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