平衡未来的城市发展和碳封存:对中国城市集群的多场景InVEST模型分析
Jinxia Zhang1, Zhao Liu1, Zilong Guan2
1School of Water and Environment, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710054, China; Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effect in Arid Region of the Ministry of Education, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710054, China; Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydrology and Water Security in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions of Ministry of Water Resources, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710054, China.
Journal of environmental management
|March 20, 2025
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态系统研究 生态系统研究
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 人类的土地利用对地球的系统和碳储存产生了重大影响.
- 中国快速的工业化和城市化需要了解未来的土地使用影响.
- 评估碳储存的变化对于有效的碳减排政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析土地利用变化及其对中国城市集群碳储存的影响.
- 在各种发展场景下,对2020年和2070年的这些变化进行预测.
- 探索城市绿地在减轻碳排放方面的潜力.
主要方法:
- 使用InVEST模型进行生态系统服务评估.
- 分析了不同未来发展场景下的土地使用数据.
- 量化碳储存变化和城市绿色空间的作用.
主要成果:
- 预计城市建设将占主导地位,生态土地有限.
- 农田经历了大量的土地转让,部分被政策驱动的无透面积转换所抵消.
- 预计城市集群中的总碳储存量将减少,损失将超过封存量.
结论:
- 城市绿地可以抵消部分城市碳排放 (5.31%).
- 小型和中型城市被确定为减少碳压力的关键领域.
- SSP1-26方案为中国的可持续城市发展提供了一个平衡的途径.
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