死亡时的年龄估计基于使用二进制和顺序预测器进行多类歧视分析的算法
Efthymia Nikita1, Panos Nikitas2
1Science and Technology in Archaeology and Culture Research Centre, The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Journal of forensic and legal medicine
|March 20, 2025
概括
多类歧视分析的算法使用二进制/正数预测器有效估计死亡年龄. 隐藏模型算法的性能类似,优于原始方法,特别是具有更大的类大小的高精度.
科学领域:
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 法医人类学 法医人类学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 准确的死亡年龄估计在法医科学和人类学中至关重要.
- 使用人口统计数据开发可靠的年龄估计统计方法是一个持续的挑战.
- 二进制和顺序预测器提供了一个灵活的方法来建模与年龄相关的数据.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估用于估计死亡年龄的多类歧视分析算法.
- 用二进制和/或顺序预测器评估算法的性能.
- 为了确定这些算法的有效性,在场景与相关的预测器.
主要方法:
- 基于未相关的预测因素 (粗假设) 和假设多变量正常分布的潜在模型的算法.
- 使用了从训练数据估计的或从相关数据算法生成的四合/多合相关性.
- 应用算法对死亡时的年龄估计数据集,分析分类准确性.
主要成果:
- 原始算法在高度相互关联的顺序预测器中表现不佳.
- 基于潜在模型的算法表现出类似且令人满意的分类性能.
- 整体分类准确度很好,即使采用小样本大小,但对小样本的交叉验证准确度很低.
结论:
- 隐藏模型算法适用于死亡时的年龄估计;应避免使用相关的顺序数据进行原始算法.
- 增加类大小显著提高了分类准确性.
- 高度的交叉验证准确性 (超过90%) 可以通过更大的类大小来实现.
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