[青海-西高原自然保护区生态脆弱性的演变和模拟]
Xiao-Feng Wang1,2, Yuan-Yuan Zheng1,2, Ze-Chong Sun1,2
1College of Land Engineering, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710054, China.
Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue
|March 20, 2025
概括
青海-西高原自然保护区的生态脆弱性从2000年到2020年有所改善,但高风险地区仍然存在. 未来的情景表明,高脆弱性区域正在扩大,特别是在西北部,强调需要可持续发展战略.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 地理 地理 地理 地理.
背景情况:
- 青海-西高原是中国最大的生态脆弱地区.
- 了解生态脆弱性对于加强生态安全障碍和促进绿色发展至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估青海-西高原自然保护区生态脆弱性的空间和时间特征.
- 在不同的发展偏好下模拟未来的生态脆弱性场景.
主要方法:
- 建立了一个基于灵敏度-重要性-弹性 (SIR) 的评估指标系统.
- 生态脆弱性的量化评估的空间和时间特征.
- 模拟的未来场景使用分析层次过程顺序加权平均 (AHP-OWA) 方法.
主要成果:
- 在2000年至2020年期间,生态脆弱性指数 (EVI) 从0.79降至0.74,表明整体情况有所改善.
- 空间模式显示,西北部的脆弱性更高,东南部的脆弱性更低,集中在特定储备中.
- 模拟场景预计在经济优先发展下扩大高度脆弱的地区.
结论:
- 保护区的生态脆弱性显示出总体改善趋势,但仍然令人担忧,特别是在西北部.
- 未来的发展场景突出了高度脆弱地区的潜在扩张,需要仔细规划.
- 该研究为区域可持续发展和脆弱性风险早期预警机制提供了理论基础.
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