[中国B型肝炎的发病率和时空聚类,2006-2020年]
1National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China National Immunization Program, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.
概括
从2006年到2020年,中国的乙型肝炎发病率总体下降,所有年龄组的急性病例显著下降. 然而,35岁及以上的成年人中慢性乙型肝炎病例正在增加,特别是在东南部和西南部地区.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病监测 传染病监测 传染病
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 乙型肝炎仍然是全球和中国的重大公共卫生问题.
- 了解乙型肝炎的时空趋势对于有效的预防和控制策略至关重要.
- 之前的分析并没有完全捕捉近15年的详细发病率和地理分布变化.
研究的目的:
- 分析2006年至2020年间中国B型肝炎的发病率和时空聚类情况.
- 确定不同年龄组和地区急性和慢性乙型肝炎病例的趋势.
- 为改进中国的乙型肝炎预防和控制措施提供数据驱动的见解.
主要方法:
- 利用来自中国疾病控制和预防信息系统 (2006-2020) 的国家可通报传染病数据.
- 雇员Joinpoint 5.0.2软件用于发生率趋势分析.
- 应用 SaTScan 10.1.2 软件用于时空扫描分析,以识别疾病集群.
主要成果:
- 报告了总共1,049,546例急性乙型肝炎病例,显示所有年龄组的发病率有显著下降趋势 (P<0.001).
- 报告了10,732,017例慢性乙型肝炎病例;在年轻人群中发生率下降,但在35岁以上的人群中显著增加 (P<0.05).
- 时空分析显示,急性乙型肝炎的高发病率区域从中国西部转移到中国西南部,成人慢性乙型肝炎转移到中国东南沿海和西南部.
结论:
- 虽然整体急性乙型肝炎的发病率正在下降,但35岁及以上的成年人中慢性乙型肝炎的增加需要有针对性的干预措施.
- 高发病率地区的地理转移需要适应性的公共卫生战略.
- 迫切需要加强成人慢性乙型肝炎的诊断和治疗,特别是在中国东南沿海和西南地区.
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