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在气候变化场景下预测Illicium griffithii的息地适应性,使用合并建模方法

Anubhav Bhuyan¹, Amal Bawri², Bhrigu Prasad Saikia³

¹School of Sciences, Department of Environmental Science, Tezpur University, Sonitpur, Assam, 784028, India.

Scientific reports

|March 21, 2025

概括

气候变化威胁到临灭绝的Illicium griffithii,其分布受到等热性和土壤特性等关键因素的影响. 未来的气候情景预计适合息地的减少,需要在阿鲁纳查尔邦采取紧急保护措施.

科学领域:

生态与保护生物学生态与保护生物学
气候变化影响研究影响研究
生物多样性研究生物多样性研究

背景情况:

气候变化对全球生物多样性构成重大威胁,由于适应能力有限,导致物种灭绝.
Illicium griffithii是一种临灭绝的树种,具有生态和药用重要性,研究不足,特别是在阿鲁纳查尔邦.

研究的目的:

确定影响目前Illicium griffithii.分布的关键环境变量.
根据当前和未来的气候场景 (SSP245和SSP585) 预测Illicium griffithii的潜在分布.

主要方法:

采用了整体建模方法,整合了五种物种分布模型 (SDM).
在多线性测试后,使用了15个环境变量 (生物气候,土壤,地形,蒸发)
使用AUC (0.94) 和TSS (0.83) 评估模型性能,表明可靠的预测.

主要成果:

目前Illicium griffithii的分布主要受到同热度,土壤,土壤粘土含量和降水季节性 (42.6%的贡献) 的影响.
对于Illicium griffithii非常适合的地区目前占地722.72平方公里,集中在阿鲁纳查尔邦的西卡门格,塔旺和东卡门格地区.
未来的气候预测 (SSP585,2041-2060) 显示,高度适宜地区的减少约为5.05%,缩小至686.25平方公里.

结论:

格里菲 (Illicium griffithii) 对未来气候变化的影响非常脆弱.
保护策略,包括息地恢复,辅助迁移和现场保护,对于物种的生存至关重要.
建议森林管理人员优先保护在西卡门格,塔旺和东卡门格地区内确定适合的息地.

关键词:

伊利西乌姆格里菲蒂 (Illicium griffithii) 是一个古老的古迹.气候变化和地形变量组合模型模型组合模型我们有GEM3-GC31-LL.种类分布模型是一种物种分布模型.

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