不确定性沟通对公众信任的影响取决于信念 - - 证据一致性
Charlotte Dries1,2, Michelle McDowell1,3, Claudia R Schneider4,5
1Harding Center for Risk Literacy, University of Potsdam, Virchowstraße 2, Potsdam 14482, Germany.
PNAS nexus
|March 21, 2025
概括
当证据与他们的信念一致,不确定性得到传达时,人们对科学信息的信任就会减少. 相反,当证据与他们的信仰相矛盾,不确定性被传达时,他们更信任它.
科学领域:
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
- 沟通研究 沟通研究
- 行为科学 行为科学
背景情况:
- 人们对科学传播的信任因人而异.
- 以前的信念显著影响人们对科学证据及其来源的看法.
- 了解信念证据一致性的作用对于有效的科学传播至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查在不确定性被传达时,先前的信念和科学证据之间的一致性如何影响信心.
- 测试一个假设,预测信任证据一致性和不确定性之间的交叉相互作用.
- 检查这些不同主题的影响,包括COVID-19疫苗和极端天气事件.
主要方法:
- 进行了两项预先注册的在线实验,共有1601名参与者.
- 参与者在暴露在具有或没有传达不确定性的对比证据条件之前,评价了他们之前的信念.
- 信念与证据的一致性是通过将先前的信念得分与所提供的证据联系起来来实现的.
主要成果:
- 证据支持COVID-19疫苗和极端天气事件的假设.
- 当与先前的信念和不确定性保持一致的证据被传达时,对信息和来源的信任下降.
- 当证据与先前的信念相矛盾,不确定性被传达时,无论对立的信念如何,信任就会增加.
结论:
- 对于传达的不确定性,信任的反应取决于个体的信念与所提供的证据之间的一致性.
- 不确定性沟通对信任的影响似乎与其对后续信念的影响不同.
- 没有证据表明信任或信仰的两极分化,这表明有细微的相互作用.
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